Original｜Odaily Planet Daily
Author: jk
In the just-concluded 2024 US election, Republican candidate Donald Trump successfully won the presidency. This news, as the highlight of the second half of this year, will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the international situation and the cryptocurrency market.
In this article, we will take an in-depth look at the possible impact of Trump’s victory on the crypto industry, including the overall context and market reaction to Trump’s re-election as president, present the meme coins associated with him and their short-term volatility, review his previous campaign promises, and predict the impact of possible future policy measures on the crypto market.
Trump returns to power, and the market reacts sharply in the short term
In the early morning of November 6, local time in the United States, Republican candidate Donald Trump was basically confirmed to be elected as the new president of the United States. ( Extended reading: Why is it basically confirmed? Please see the previous summary of the election mechanism by Odaily Planet Daily Must-read before the US election: All the twists and turns you need to know are here ) In the vote, the Republican Party successfully won several key swing states such as North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. As of press time, it has won a total of 277 electoral votes , about 51.94 % of the popular votes, and won the opponent Kamala Harris (Kamala Harris) and was successfully elected as the president of the United States.
In fact, from the moment Trump won the key swing states, his becoming the president of the United States was already a foregone conclusion. However, from the start of the vote counting on November 5, to Trump showing a clear advantage, to the release of the vote count in the swing states, there was a gap of several hours in between, and the trend of Bitcoin during this period was crazy: on the evening of November 5, Beijing time, that is, the time when the polling stations opened on November 5, local time in the United States, the price of Bitcoin was still fluctuating around US$68,000; on the morning of November 6, Beijing time, it broke through the $70,000 mark all the way, and directly broke through $75,000 at noon to reach a new high, and then fluctuated above $74,000.
Bitcoins trend today. Source: Coingecko
Ethereum also showed good performance, rising from around $2,400 before the election day to over $2,600 in a short period of time, and then fluctuating above $2,500. Meanwhile, Solana rose by 15% in 24 hours to around $185, and Doge, a meme coin related to Musk, a die-hard supporter of Trumps campaign, rose by around 25% in a day, and also rose by 15% in 7 days, making it the best among high-market-cap currencies. It can be seen that the market has high expectations for Trumps election in the US election, and also high expectations that his term will bring benefits to cryptocurrencies.
Due to market time reasons, we have not yet been able to observe the impact of Trumps victory on the three major US stock indexes. However, the stocks of Trump Media and Technology Group, which are related to Trump, also rose sharply after the market, and the after-hours price rose by 10.43% as of press time.
DJT stock also surged. Source: Google
Another MAGA
As the news of Trumps victory spread, the Meme coins associated with him also fluctuated sharply.
MAGA tokens have increased by 20% in 24 hours and are now trading at $3.95. The expected sell-off by a large address did not occur, but instead saw a sharp rise;
MAGA token trend, source: Coingecko
TREMP rose 25.2% in 24 hours and is now trading at $0.3793; in contrast, STRUMP experienced the expected sell-off, falling more than 16% in 24 hours and is now trading at $ 0.005369 ; FIGHT rose 4.7% in 24 hours, and TRUMPCOIN fell 3.2% in 24 hours.
In contrast, the performance of Harris Meme has fallen through the floor: HORRISs 24-hour decline reached 91.6%, and other meme-related concepts have basically disappeared underwater. It can be seen that the choices of the Meme market are more honest than anyone else: some people recharge Trumps Meme for subsequent expectations, while others choose to stop while they are ahead, while Harris Meme expectations have completely disappeared.
But it must be said that the current rally may bring a short-term decline, because the previous whale addresses are likely to choose to sell after the victory, especially after the next day in the United States, when the news of the victory is fully digested by the market. At the same time, the current decline of some memes does not represent a long-term trough, because after Trump is elected president, the concept of memes will continue and fluctuate with his every crypto-related policy, which brings us to our next question: what policies will he implement?
Trumps campaign promise: Is Gary Gensler really leaving this time?
Trumps victory has far-reaching impacts on the policy direction, economic development and crypto market of the United States. His attitude towards cryptocurrencies has changed a lot in his speeches and public statements over the past few years, from criticizing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to showing some interest in blockchain technology, and finally accepting cryptocurrency donations, being keen on cryptocurrencies and speaking at Bitcoin conferences. This part of the change makes people unsure of his attitude. Arthur Hayes believes that appealing to the young, politically active and upstart cryptocurrency groups may help Trump win the election... Trump is a shrewd politician. He will say anything to anyone who wants to be re-elected. Once in office, anything related to cryptocurrency will become a distant memory.
In the article Guess how many of Trumps campaign promises have been fulfilled? published by Odaily Planet Daily, we concluded that during his previous presidency, Trump successfully kept about 23% of his promises, gave in and partially fulfilled 22% of his promises, but broke about 53% of his promises. In other words, crypto-related goals that do not account for a major part of Trumps political propositions may really be broken or thrown into the trash.
Regardless of the final outcome, Trump did make several promises that would be beneficial to the promotion of the crypto industry as a candidate who is more pro-cryptocurrency than Harris:
Promises to end regulatory hostility toward the crypto industry;
Promises to protect the right to mint Bitcoin and the right of American citizens to own and custody digital assets;
promised to release Ross Ulbricht, who was convicted of creating the dark web marketplace Silk Road;
Promising Senator Elizabeth Warren (who has proposed a bill to regulate the crypto industry) and “her goons” to stay away from Bitcoin holders;
Promises to replace Gary Gensler (on his first day in office) (Odaily has a summary of possible future SEC chairs for you, see Who will be the new SEC chair after Gary Gensler? );
Commit to establish a national strategic reserve of Bitcoin and not sell the Bitcoins held;
Committed to establish a Bitcoin Advisory Council;
No support for CBDC.
At the same time, Odaily Planet Daily has summarized for you all the encryption bills that are likely to be passed after Trump takes office. See If Trump is elected president, what encryption bills will be passed?
There is no big and complete record of the above promises, but Trump made them in different places: at campaign rallies, in private gatherings with industry leaders, or in speeches at Bitcoin conferences. The official policy draft only contains a small part about protecting the rights of American citizens. There are indeed a few of these promises that can immediately trigger the benefits and support of the Crypto industry, so the core question goes back to what we said at the beginning: Yes, now you are the president, can you fulfill the promises you made before? The answer to this question may determine the trend of the industry this year and at least the next four years.
Further reading: In addition to the presidency, the election for this seat will also have a profound impact on the future of Crypto
