Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )
Author: Wenser ( @wenser 2010 )
Its May 19 again.
After the breakthrough of $107,000 this morning, the callback came immediately: BTC fell below $103,000; ETH fell below $2,400; SOL fell below $160. Coinglass data shows that the total liquidation of the entire network in the past 24 hours reached $618 million, of which long orders were liquidated for $392 million and short orders were liquidated for $227 million. The liquidation volume of ETH exceeded BTC. Despite this, there are still many people in the market who maintain the view that BTC is about to break a new high. Unlike the various whale actions mentioned in our previous article Multi-army retreat VS air force carnival: $100,000 has become BTCs Maginot Line? , many crypto market analysts and industry representatives choose to use their words to influence the market.
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize this in this article.
Bullish: New highs are imminent, first look at $116,000, and anything below $100,000 will become history
With the phased end of the Sino-US tariff trade war and the implementation of various favorable policy factors frequently released by the Trump administration, many people believe that the crypto market is about to usher in a new wave of price highs represented by BTC, and the target price of BTC has also risen from US$116,000 to US$220,000 or even US$250,000.
Traders predict BTC will break all-time highs in the near term, with a target price of $116,000
Crypto trader Alan expects Bitcoin to break through its all-time high in the coming days with a target price of $116,000. He pointed out that Bitcoin is currently in a converging triangle structure with decreasing volume, indicating that sharp fluctuations may occur.
In addition, trader Mikybull Crypto identified a diamond pattern breakout signal, believing that the price trend is strong, while Daan Crypto Trades noticed that the spot premium on Coinbase persisted, indicating active buying in the U.S. Nevertheless, traders such as CrypNuevo reminded that Bitcoin has not yet completely broken through the key resistance level and may still be at risk of a pullback in the short term.
Whale James Wynn: BTC is unlikely to fall below $100,000
Whale James Wynn wrote that it would be great if Bitcoin fell back below $100,000, because then he could increase his holdings or the price could rise further, but unfortunately this is unlikely to happen.
Galaxy CEO: Bitcoin price may be between $130,000 and $150,000 in the next stage
Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz said in an interview with CNBC that given that the market value of gold assets is about 22 trillion US dollars, while the market value of Bitcoin is only 2 trillion US dollars, the price of Bitcoin in the next stage may be between 130,000 and 150,000 US dollars. From this perspective, it is still in the price discovery stage.
Analyst: Bitcoin may rise to $220,000 in 2025, $250,000 is beyond expectations
Crypto analyst Apsk 32 said that Bitcoin following gold to new highs is a popular theory among bullish investors. Historically, Bitcoin usually follows golds rise a few months after it rises. With the price of gold rising to an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce, the outlook for Bitcoins future price trend has become brighter. Apsk 32 said the concept of the momentum curve is to circumvent the impact of US dollar inflation by measuring the price of Bitcoin in ounces of gold. If Bitcoins network value (in gold) continues to evolve along the momentum curve, and gold maintains its current price, while Bitcoin prices return to the track of leading support for five years, the $444,000 target may be seen this year. However, this week, Apsk 32 believes that a more reasonable target price for 2025 may be around $220,000. And said that if the price of Bitcoin breaks through $250,000, it will be beyond the expected range.
Analyst: Bitcoin could reach $250,000 this year
Scott Melker, a cryptocurrency analyst and host of the podcast The Wolf of All Streets, said that it is entirely possible for BTC to rise to $250,000 in 2025. He pointed out that the continued influx of institutional investors and the decline in market volatility are key factors driving price increases. Scott Melker emphasized that with the participation of traditional financial institutions such as pension funds and ETF issuers, the Bitcoin market is becoming more mature and stable, and the volatility of Bitcoin has dropped from three times that of the SP 500 index in the past to less than two times.
In addition, Scott Melker also mentioned that Coinbase was included in the top 50 of the SP 500 index, companies such as Galaxy Digital and eToro promoted their listing plans, and the improvement of the US regulatory environment, all of which provided strong support for the crypto market. Although most analysts predict that the high point of Bitcoin in this cycle will be between $120,000 and $150,000, Melker believes that considering that Bitcoin rose from $3,000 to $69,000 in 2020, it is not impossible for the current price to rise by another 2.5 times. In addition, Ethereums recent increase has exceeded Bitcoin, driving up small-cap tokens, indicating that new funds are flowing into the market, rather than just rotating between existing assets.
Mining Penguin: SOL and BTC spot have been purchased based on the macro-market situation
Trader @Goupenguin (mining penguin) posted that he had bought spot at SOL $169.7 and BTC $103,580 based on large-scale market judgment, and said that he missed out on profits in April due to Trump-related market conditions.
He said that although there is no clear judgment on the upside space yet, he hopes that the market can continue to rise despite the divergence of indicators.
Viewpoint: The copycat season has not yet arrived, but institutional investors have begun to increase their holdings of SOL
Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin wrote: , we are still a long way from the so-called alt season, and the current spot trading volume in the altcoin market is still lower than the levels in January 2025 and March 2024, and is far lower than the level in 2021.
However, some institutions have begun to increase their holdings of SOL before the arrival of the altcoin season. For example, DeFi Development Corps SOL holdings have exceeded US$100 million, and SOL Strategies has recently increased its holdings by more than 120,000 SOL. In addition, the growth of new developers on the Solana chain has just exceeded that of Ethereum, an increase of 83% year-on-year. Developers are choosing Solana. Currently, 65% of SOL is pledged and open positions are also rising.
Rich Dad Poor Dad author: Save spot gold, silver and BTC to protect against the next crisis instead of buying ETFs
Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, wrote that Wall Street united to rescue the hedge fund LTCM in 1998, and the central bank rescued Wall Street in 2008. Each crisis will become bigger. The problem began in 1971 when Nixon abolished the gold standard of the US dollar. The next crisis may be triggered by the collapse of $1.6 trillion in student loan debt. For most people, the best way to protect themselves is to save themselves, so they can save spot gold, silver and Bitcoin instead of buying ETFs.
Fidelity: BTC acceleration phase is still continuing and will continue to set new highs before the end of this cycle
Fidelity Digital Assets stated that after 69 days of low profits and high volatility, Bitcoins acceleration phase continues. This trend strengthens the Fidelity teams argument that Bitcoin may hit a new all-time high before the end of this cycle.
CryptoQuant: Undervalued ETH is attracting attention from ETF buyers, and the market may rebound
CryptoQuant previously reported that Ethereums (ETH) market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) relative to Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to its lowest level since 2019, indicating that ETH may be undervalued. Historical data shows that at similar levels, ETH usually rises sharply and outperforms BTC. Since the end of April, the proportion of ETH/BTC ETF holdings has risen significantly, indicating that institutional investors expect ETH to outperform BTC, which may be driven by the recent Pectra upgrade and the improvement of the macroeconomic environment. On-chain data shows that ETHs selling pressure has eased and trading volume has increased, supporting its potential upward trend. Currently, the ETH/BTC price ratio has rebounded 38% from its low in January 2020, and investors and traders are betting that ETH has bottomed out, which may trigger a new round of altcoin season.
Matrixport: Bull and bear indicators return to the bullish range, Bitcoin may hit a new high
Matrixport said in its market analysis that its market capitalization to realized market capitalization ratio bull-bear indicator has re-entered the bullish range. Although the agencys technical analysis is usually ahead of on-chain data, the indicator reversal is still of great reference value. Matrixport pointed out that it is rare for such indicators to reverse in the short term, but a similar situation occurred in 2020 and was interpreted as a slowdown in the cycle. If the indicator maintains positive momentum, Bitcoin may be expected to challenge a record high.
Legendary investor Tim Draper: I keep buying more BTC
Venture capital legend Tim Draper said in an interview, I have been buying more Bitcoin. As early as 2014, he purchased 29,656 BTC through the US Marshals Service auction for about $19 million, with an average price of about $640. This batch of BTC originated from assets seized by the US government in the Silk Road law enforcement operation. Draper has repeatedly expressed his long-term optimism about Bitcoin, believing that it can bring liquidity to emerging markets and resist the risk of currency depreciation.
Bitcoin transaction fees hit a new high this year, and illiquid supply hit a new high
The 7-day average transaction fee on the Bitcoin chain rose to $2.40, up about $1 from the beginning of May, a new high for the year. Glassnode data shows that the long-term BTC illiquid supply has reached a record high, which means that the number of BTC available for trading on exchanges has decreased. Once demand rises in the future, it may trigger a supply shock and further push up prices. At the same time, Bitcoins market dominance has rebounded after a previous decline, which may indicate that its short-term pullback relative to other crypto assets is more affected by liquidity rather than the markets structural shift to the altcoin season.
Cautious optimists: ETH has limited support, don’t be carried away by the sentiment of the options market
During the rapid recovery of market prices, in addition to highly optimistic views, some crypto analysts still believe that the current price increase, especially the increase in ETH, has not received sufficient value support, and the positive sentiment in the options market should not be used as the only basis.
Greeks.live: Options data shows that market sentiment is optimistic, but still cautious in the short term
Adam, an analyst at Greeks.live, previously wrote , Option delivery data on May 16: 27,000 BTC options expired, the Put Call Ratio was 1.03, the maximum pain point was $100,000, and the notional value was $2.76 billion. 220,000 ETH options expired, the Put Call Ratio was 1.36, the maximum pain point was $2,300, and the notional value was $570 million. This weeks Bitcoin delivery data is almost the same as last week, and Ethereum is also similar except for price factors. The current market sentiment is very good, but option data shows that there are still not many holders of mainstream coins, and the profiteers are limited. At present, the medium- and short-term RV of Bitcoin has fallen below 35%, and the medium- and long-term are both around 50%, but the IV has fallen more significantly, almost falling below 45%, so the VRP of each term has fallen back.
The delivery volume is less than 9% of the total position. The proportion of put options this month continues to be high. This phenomenon may not change significantly until June. The market is optimistic about the future market, but not many people are long BTC in the short term.
Analysis: ETHs recent rise is mainly driven by technical factors, and the willingness to allocate widely may still be limited
David Duong, head of research at Coinbase Institutional, wrote that ETH experienced a price increase last week that was mainly driven by technical factors. The analysis pointed out that the increase reflected the short covering and subsequent position adjustment by a large number of traders in the market who were in the wrong positions, which made the price trend of ETH catch up with other major tokens such as BTC and SOL. However, David believes that despite such price performance, this may indicate that the markets willingness to make a broader allocation to ETH is still relatively limited.
Grayscale’s view: Bitcoin’s market dominance is declining, but it does not mean that the “altcoin season” is coming
Bitcoins dominance in the cryptocurrency market has declined recently, and analysts point out that this does not mean that the alt season is coming. Zach Pandl, head of Grayscale Research, said that Bitcoins dominance may rise when the market focuses on macroeconomic instability and risks facing the US dollar, while Bitcoins dominance may decline when the market focuses on various applications of blockchain technology and innovations in the crypto field. In addition, he mentioned: In the next approximately 9 to 12 months, Bitcoins market share is more likely to stabilize between 60% and 70% of the overall crypto market rather than a sharp decline.
Event-driven decline: ETH, XRP, DOGE and other few currencies were affected
Apart from the steady improvement of the overall market sentiment, at present, the main reason for the decline is the transmission effect of event factors such as local US policies or interpretation of the US stock market on the crypto market.
ETH, XRP, DOGE fall by about 3% after Moodys downgrades US credit rating
Moodys downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa 1, citing widening deficits, rising interest payments, and a lack of political will to control spending. As a result, major cryptocurrencies fell, with Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) all falling by about 3%. As of now, ETH is trading at $2,494.35, DOGE is trading at $0.2175, and XRP is trading at $2.38.
It is reported that the downgrade triggered risk aversion in the market, causing the US Treasury yield to rise, the SP 500 futures to fall, and both traditional and crypto markets to be affected. Moodys also became the third major rating agency to downgrade the US rating after Standard Poors (2011) and Fitch (2023).
Analyst: Market overreacted to Coinbase attack, SEC investigation triggered stock price drop
Coinbase shares fell 7.2% on Thursday, May 16 (last Friday), after the company disclosed that it had suffered a social engineering attack that led to the leakage of customer data and confirmed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was investigating the disclosure of user data in its 2021 initial public offering (IPO) documents. Analysts pointed out that the market may have overreacted to the news. Analysts at Barclays and Oppenheimer said that the hacking incident was isolated and Coinbase has promised to compensate affected customers. The SECs investigation is not related to the current disclosure, but is aimed at the user growth indicators used by the company in the past.
Wisconsin Investment Commission liquidates $350 million worth of Bitcoin spot ETF holdings
It is understood that the Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) completely liquidated its holdings of about 6 million shares of BlackRocks iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in the first quarter of 2025, with a market value of about US$350 million at the time. The agency had previously significantly increased its holdings of the ETF at the end of 2024, becoming one of the first US state pension funds to invest in Bitcoin spot ETFs. The withdrawal occurred against the backdrop of a drop in Bitcoin prices of about 12%.
At the same time, Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala increased its holdings in IBIT to approximately US$409 million in the same quarter, showing a divergence in institutional investors allocation strategies for Bitcoin ETFs.
