Original author: Glassnode
Original translation: Felix, PANews
Bitcoin has started to pull back after hitting a new high of $111,800 as long-term holders began to take profits. With key support levels at $103,700 and $95,600, and signs that long-term investors are selling, bulls are now facing a severe test.
Key points:
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $111,800 but quickly retreated to $103,200. The initial rise appears to have been driven by the spot market, with major accumulation zones of $81,000-$85,000, $93,000-$96,000, and $102,000-$104,000 now acting as potential support levels.
From a more macro perspective, many of the historical accumulation zones have turned into selling zones via the CBD heat map. Sellers from the $25,000 to $31,000, $38,000 to $44,000, and $60,000 to $73,000 ranges are weighing on price action.
The cost basis percentile and short-term holder range suggest that near-term support is around $103,700 and $95,600, with resistance at $114,800. These levels are important statistical indicators of shifts in broader market sentiment.
Realized profits surged to $1.47 billion/day, marking the fifth major profit-taking in this cycle. The sell-off was led by long-term holders rather than short-term traders.
The group with holding period of more than 1 year has dominated the recent selling, reflecting the mature capital rotation. This is consistent with the previous observations of CBD heat map, confirming that senior investors are shaping the current top formation stage.
Rising Staircase Chart
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has continued its rally, reaching a new high of $111,800 and briefly surpassing the previous high set in January 2025. However, the subsequent pullback to $103,200 suggests a possible pause in the bullish momentum.
To understand the internal structure of this rally, you can use the CBD heat map (PANews Note: CBD heat map is a heat map of Cumulative Volume Delta data), which tracks the net difference between aggressive buying and selling at different prices. Visually, it can reveal concentrated accumulation or selling areas driven by spot, helping to identify the price range with the strongest demand.
Judging from the heat map, this rebound is mainly driven by spot prices and is rising in a step-by-step manner, with obvious accumulation areas in the ranges of $81,000 to $85,000, $93,000 to $96,000, and $102,000 to $104,000. These areas are now likely to become supply-intensive areas, and under the influence of the overall market sentiment, they may play a short-term support role.
Notably, top buyers from the first quarter of this year held on after prices fell below $80,000 and are now being tested again as prices hover near $110,000. This article will explore the fading momentum behind recent demand, factors that are weakening the market, and where potential support levels may emerge if market weakness persists.
Source: Glassnode
Selling pressure from long-term holders
Understanding the drivers behind Bitcoin’s recent move above $111,000 requires looking at the broader market structure. By looking at the heat map since the cycle bottom in June 2022, the distribution pattern of past accumulated positions begins to become clear.
As prices continue to climb, supply-intensive areas that previously served as a basis for accumulation (usually characterized by sideways trading) have now transformed into active selling zones. Visually, the heat map shows a gradual shift; areas that once supported the upward move have turned into resistance levels as early holders took advantage of the opportunity to sell.
The most notable selling pressure came from groups that accumulated positions in key historical ranges ($25,000-31,000 and $60,000-73,000). Many of these groups have experienced multiple volatility phases and are now contributing to the supply glut, which appears to be limiting further gains for Bitcoin, at least in the short term.
Source: Glassnode
The Quest for Price Discovery
As long-term holders gradually apply selling pressure, the probability of a short-term pullback continues to increase, especially in the absence of a strong catalyst to push Bitcoin firmly above $111,800. During this stage of stagnant bullish momentum, on-chain pricing models become an important tool to identify potential support levels during pullbacks.
One particularly effective framework is the Spent Supply Distribution (SSD) quantile. This metric analyzes the cost basis of a token at a specific time, dividing it into 100 percentiles. It provides a high-resolution view of where supply initially enters the market, making it possible to identify areas with high turnover, which may be driven by profit-taking or loss realization.
There are three key quantiles to focus on here:
0.95 (top 5%)
0.85 (top 15%)
0.75 (top 25%)
Historical patterns over the past five years show that absolute euphoria tends to occur when prices are above the 0.95 percentile, while sideways bull phases typically occur between 0.85 and 0.95. On the other hand, sustained levels below 0.75 typically mark bear markets or risk-off periods.
Currently, the 0.95 percentile, at around $103,700, is the first level of on-chain support. If selling pressure persists, the next level to watch is the 0.85 percentile, at $95,600, which could provide structural support or, if broken, confirm a broader risk reset.
Source: Glassnode
Tracking recent investor behavior has become increasingly important as Bitcoin supply has changed hands significantly over the past six months, driven by two all-time highs. One of the most insightful models is the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, which reflects the average purchase price of Bitcoin held for less than 155 days.
To round out the statistics, “standard deviation bands” are applied to this cost basis to define key support and resistance areas. These standard deviation bands help quantify the range of market consensus among short-term participants and may signal trend exhaustion or breakout thresholds.
Currently, the STH cost basis is $97,100, representing the average purchase price of recent buyers. +1 is usually associated with overbought or bullish breakout conditions at $114,800, while -1 is at $83,200, marking an increase in downside risk.
These three levels ($114,800, $97,100, and $83,200) now define the statistical boundaries of short-term market sentiment. A breakout or breakout below these thresholds will likely determine the next phase of the market, indicating whether momentum is building or weakening.
Source: Glassnode
Profit Realization
As Bitcoin retreats from its recent high of $111,800, most of the selling pressure appears to be coming from veteran holders of the cycle, those who accumulated Bitcoin early in the rally and are now realizing handsome gains. At this stage, the profit realization mechanism is a key factor in assessing the risk of demand exhaustion.
By calculating the 7-day simple moving average of daily profit realizations (adjusted to exclude intra-real flows), daily realized profits peaked at $1.47 billion last week. This is a significant level that highlights the intensity of recent capital rotation.
More importantly, this marks the fifth time in this cycle that daily profit taking has exceeded $1 billion. Such events often coincide with local market tops or slowdowns, especially when new demand cannot absorb such a large amount of realized gains. This highlights the markets resilience in the face of huge selling pressure.
Source: Glassnode
Dynamic Transformation
To better understand the significance of the current wave of profit-taking, it is necessary to view it from a cyclical perspective. Not all profit-taking events are the same, and the dynamic nature of these mechanisms can reveal how market maturity and volatility shape investor behavior over time.
A useful approach is to look at the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of realized net profits adjusted for market value. This adjustment allows for comparisons between different weeks. One clear trend is that the enthusiasm for profit-taking has weakened over time, reflecting the general deterioration of cyclical upside performance and reduced volatility as the market matures.
The net profit-taking phase lasted for about 25 months from November 2015 to April 2018, peaking at more than 0.4% of market capitalization.
This area lasted for about 20 months in the 2020-2022 cycle, but the peak was only around 0.15%.
In the current cycle, which began in November 2023, the net profit-taking phase has lasted for 18 months, forming two clear peaks close to 0.1%.
The trend suggests that while profit-taking still exerts significant pressure, it has eased, which may indicate a shift away from boom-and-bust frenzy toward a structural rotation of capital into more mature asset classes.
Source: Glassnode
Who is profiting?
Another perspective for evaluating profit-taking cycles is to determine which investor groups are selling.
The share of profits realized by long-term holders (LTHs) has steadily increased since the 2015-2018 cycle, at the top of the market mania. This trend highlights a structural shift in market maturity, with more experienced investors dominating capital rotation rather than quick-in-and-out speculators.
During the recent peak, the 30-day moving average realized profits of long-term holders (LTHs) soared to approximately $1 billion per day, while short-term holders (STHs) realized only $320 million per day, a gap of more than 3 times, further confirming that this round of profit-taking was led by investors who held longer and had stronger convictions.
Source: Glassnode
At first glance, the current ~$1 billion in realized profits per day for long-term holders (those holding for more than 6 months) appears to pale in comparison to the ~$1.8 billion realized during the December 2024 peak. However, a deeper analysis reveals a familiar pattern.
In previous bull markets, the group of investors who hold for 6 to 12 months tends to contribute less to profit taking as the cycle progresses. This dynamic is again evident in the current cycle. As the rally continues, more and more senior investors among the long-term holders are beginning to become the main sellers, which seems to be shaping the top formation phase of this cycle.
Source: Glassnode
Therefore, by excluding the 6-12 month holding group from the total realized profits of long-term holders, we can more accurately assess the true impact of senior investors on current market dynamics. This adjustment eliminates the impact of high-level buyers in the first quarter of 2025, whose unrealized gains were relatively limited, and focuses on investors who have held for more than a year and have higher profit margins.
The significance of the current move becomes even more apparent when isolating the profits realized by investors who have held for more than a year. This group is usually associated with committed investors who are now taking profits en masse, a behavior that often indicates that a bull trend has matured or is about to end.
This observation is consistent with the earlier findings of the heat map, which also showed that the recent selling pressure came mainly from experienced investors, further confirming the view that long-term holders are becoming more active during this top formation phase.
Source: Glassnode
in conclusion
Bitcoin recently climbed to a record high of $111,800, but resistance is growing, and market data shows that early buyers have become exhausted and long-term holders have taken profits. The heat map shows that several previous strong accumulation zones have turned into active selling zones, especially for investors who bought in the $25,000 to $73,000 range.
On-chain pricing models such as the cost basis quantile and short-term holder statistical ranges now define the immediate structure of the market. If demand weakens, key support levels of $103,700 and $95,600 will be crucial, while the upward resistance range of $114,800 remains a test for the market to revive.
The profit realization mechanism has also become more intense, with a peak daily profit of $1.47 billion, mainly led by long-term holders. This trend, coupled with the increase in the proportion of profit taking among those who have held for more than 1 year, indicates that we may be witnessing a distribution phase rather than a new round of breakout.
Overall, the market appears to be at a crossroads, with selling pressure increasing, bullish momentum fading, and demand having to prove itself resilient. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this is a mid-term consolidation or the beginning of a broader top formation.
